What to Expect When You're Projecting? Interrogating Population Projections and Their Fertility Assumptions
October 13, 2020
9:00 am EDT | 2:00 pm London | 4:00 pm Uganda
The human population took hundreds of thousands of years to grow to 2.5 billion people in 1950. Then, within the time span of just 70 years, the world’s population nearly tripled to exceed 7.8 billion people. Will this rapid increase continue, or might population growth slow or subside altogether?
Population projections have been used for decades to shed light on what the future may hold based on assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration. Over the last several years, experts have projected continuous global population growth through 2100, largely driven by the trajectory of future childbearing. In July 2020, a new study projected that global population may peak sooner based on assumptions about future contraceptive use and education – resulting in 2 billion fewer people by 2100. Others have likewise produced different possible futures based on predicted family sizes. A shift in what we believe the future holds may drastically alter the nature of policies, programs, and how we spend resources. With such high stakes, it is important to critically analyze projections and their underlying assumptions.
Join us for a discussion exploring population projections and their competing perspectives on the future of childbearing in low- and middle-income countries. This webinar will critically review diverging fertility assumptions underlying prominent projections and consider the implications for health policy, programming, and funding.
Did you know?
HP+ offers a variety of user-friendly software and computer models that can inform and leverage those population projects and help guide policy and decision makers.