The Total Market Approach (TMA) Projection Tool
The HP+ project developed the TMA Projection Tool for policymakers to understand how the desired shifts in market share among public, social marketing, and commercial players can lead to increased contraceptive prevalence rate and equity. It estimates the financial and health equity impacts if the commercial family planning sector grows, and how better targeting of subsidies can free up the market for commercial sector products while improving market sustainability.
The TMA Projection Tool allows a user to project the public and donor resources that are saved when a proportion of wealthier women shift from using family planning products that are subsidized by donors and government to using commercial family planning products. It then estimates the number of additional women that could be reached if those savings are invested in pro-poor outreach programs. With these outputs, the model helps policymakers envision the role of the commercial sector in achieving a more sustainable family planning market.
The projection parameters are best refined in consultation with in-country stakeholders to determine what shifts in the market could be expected if it was opened up to commercial sector players through market interventions. Market interventions implemented during the projection period can directly or indirectly enable commercial sector growth. They may include improvement of the policy and regulatory environment for commercial products; introduction of commercial products into the market; reduction or removal of subsidies; or other activities based on market player and stage of market development. A more complete resource on TMA interventions to complement use of the TMA Projection Tool can be found in the HP+ brief, “From Policy to Practice: Defining Health Market Interventions within a Total Market Approach.”
The TMA Projection Tool is free and available to everyone. Users are strongly encouraged to refer to the user’s guide which describes model settings, assumptions, interpretation of outputs, and application experiences. All model users should credit the Health Policy Plus project using the following suggested citation: Health Policy Plus. 2019. Total Market Approach Projection Tool: Projecting Financial and Family Planning Impacts. Washington, DC: Palladium, Health Policy Plus.
HP+ does not verify the results of applications performed independently, and results should be presented as estimates. The project kindly requests that anyone using the model inform the project by emailing firstname.lastname@example.org, so that we better understand the model's reach and impact. Users are also welcome to submit comments and suggestions to improve the model to the same address.