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Demographic Dividend

HP+ More recent Demographic Dividend publications are available.

  • The potential economic benefits of the demographic dividend and the policies required to achieve it are well-documented at the global level. However, no universally applicable model exists in the public domain to project the demographic dividend in individual countries. This poster presents a study by the USAID-funded Health Policy Project to develop an empirically sound projection model that can be readily applied in any high-fertility country using national data on standard economic, demographic, and social indicators to estimate the effects of a future demographic dividend and specific policies required. The poster was presented at the 2014 Population Association of America Annual Meeting.

  • To meet the data needs of policymakers, whose enthusiasm for the potential economic benefits of the demographic dividend is growing, the Health Policy Project developed DemDiv, a new, customizable projection model. DemDiv is a user-friendly, evidence-based tool that informs policymakers in high-fertility countries of the potential benefits of the demographic dividend and can increase their support for investments in the multisectoral policies required to achieve those benefits. The model can be applied in any country, and allows users to design multiple scenarios showing how the combined power of policy investments in family planning, education, and the economy can generate a demographic dividend not possible under the status quo.

    DemDiv was created by the Health Policy Project (HPP), with support from USAID. It is available at no cost for use by anyone. All uses of DemDiv should credit HPP and USAID as the source of the model, using the citation listed on the model overview page. HPP does not verify the results of applications performed independently, and results should be presented as estimates. HPP kindly requests that individuals, institutions, and programs using the model inform Futures Group of such use so that we better understand its reach and impact, by contacting policyinfo@futuresgroup.com. Users are also welcome to submit comments and suggestions to improve the model to the same address.

  • This PowerPoint presentation was used to present HPP's new DemDiv model for projecting the demographic dividend, and preliminary results for the pilot application in Kenya. It will be presented to members of the Technical Working Group in Kenya for validation, scenario development, and refinement. 

  • This brief describes the potential for a demographic dividend in Kenya, based on the pilot application of DemDiv, a new modeling tool developed by the USAID-funded Health Policy Project that projects the demographic and economic effects of interacting policy changes in the family planning, education, and economic sectors. The DemDiv model was piloted in Kenya by a multisectoral Technical Working Group chaired by the National Council for Population and Development. Four scenarios for the period between 2010 and 2050 were developed. The results show that combined family planning, education, and economic policies boost investment and employment, with GDP per capita growing more than 12 times above current levels and a potential demographic dividend of US$2,500 per person. The brief includes specific and multisectoral policy recommendations for Kenya to successfully achieve the demographic dividend.

  • This brief by Uganda’s National Planning Authority describes how Uganda and its people could benefit from the demographic dividend, based on results from DemDiv, a new modeling tool developed by the USAID-funded Health Policy Project. DemDiv shows that a combined scenario of investments in family planning, education, and economic policies would provide the strongest benefits in terms of health, investment, employment, and GDP per capita. Specific policy recommendations for the three sectors are included.

  • To meet growing enthusiasm among policymakers for the potential economic benefits of the demographic dividend with a deeper understanding that can promote tailored and effective policy investments, the USAID-funded Health Policy Project has developed a cross-national, customizable projection model, DemDiv. This technical guide describes the rationale and design of the two-part model, which consists of equations describing capital formation, employment growth, and total factor productivity as a function of age structure and other social and economic variables. Applied to any country, DemDiv allows users to design multiple scenarios that capture the effects of different policy interventions and quantify the demographic dividend.

  • The Health Policy Project (HPP) offers user-friendly software, computer models, and tools to help in-country partners understand the magnitude of health challenges, explore policy and resource options, and set priorities as they develop strategies to improve the health of their citizens.  The project has recently completed a series of fliers on some of HPP’s useful tools and approaches. They provide excellent overviews of the following:

    • Costed Implementation Plans
    • DemDiv
    • ImpactNow
    • RAPID
    • OneHealth Tool
    • GeoHealth Mapping
    • DMPPT

    For your convenience we have also included our flier on all Software and Models. You can download the tools from our Software and Models page.

  • This booklet presents an analysis of family planning (FP) in Zimbabwe and explains how FP saves the lives of women and children, promotes economic development, and saves money in other areas of development. It also examines the funding gap that Zimbabwe must address to achieve its FP2020 objectives.

    The analysis was conducted by a group of partners from the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care, the Zimbabwe National Family Planning Council, the United Nations Population Fund Zimbabwe (with pooled funding from the United Kingdom Department for International Development, the Government of Sweden, and Irish Aid), and the Health Policy Project (funded by the United States Agency for International Development).