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Modeling

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  • The potential economic benefits of the demographic dividend and the policies required to achieve it are well-documented at the global level. However, no universally applicable model exists in the public domain to project the demographic dividend in individual countries. This poster presents a study by the USAID-funded Health Policy Project to develop an empirically sound projection model that can be readily applied in any high-fertility country using national data on standard economic, demographic, and social indicators to estimate the effects of a future demographic dividend and specific policies required. The poster was presented at the 2014 Population Association of America Annual Meeting.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide FP services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing FP by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • Updated analyses on the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicate that countries would save money by investing in family planning programs. For example, in the nine francophone countries in West Africa, if governments provide family planning services to women who want to space or limit future births, countries would realize considerable savings in programs designed to address MDGs for maternal and child health, environmental sustainability, communicable diseases, and primary education. The savings in reduced costs outweigh the additional costs of providing family planning by a factor of 3 to 1 for the nine francophone countries as a whole. Summaries of the findings for the region in each country are available in English and French.

  • This report summarizes the content and format of an advanced training on the OneHealth Tool (OHT) conducted by HPP for policymakers in Zambia. It also covers preliminary discussions on next steps for finalizing the reproductive, neonatal, maternal and child health projection in OHT, as well as solidifying the Ministry of Community Development and Mother and Child Health’s capacity to use OHT independently and analyze the results for program and policy decision making. 

  • The Crosswalk of Family Planning Tools provides a comparison of 19 commonly used family planning costing, planning, and impact analysis tools. The Health Policy Project designed the guide to help advocates, program planners, decisionmakers, and others to (1) select which tool might best fit their goals or questions and (2) interpret the outputs of each tool. The guide contains information on each tool's overall goal; intended use; primary target audience; interventions included; unit costing approach (if applicable); and health, cost, economic, or demographic outputs. In addition, the guide compares the requirements for each tool related to data needs, training and skills, and usability.

    The guide is accompanied by a chart to use as a quick reference for general information and comparison. To print the chart, 11 x 17 paper is required and "fit to page" and "landscape orientation" must be selected under printer properties.

  • To meet the data needs of policymakers, whose enthusiasm for the potential economic benefits of the demographic dividend is growing, the Health Policy Project developed DemDiv, a new, customizable projection model. DemDiv is a user-friendly, evidence-based tool that informs policymakers in high-fertility countries of the potential benefits of the demographic dividend and can increase their support for investments in the multisectoral policies required to achieve those benefits. The model can be applied in any country, and allows users to design multiple scenarios showing how the combined power of policy investments in family planning, education, and the economy can generate a demographic dividend not possible under the status quo.

    DemDiv was created by the Health Policy Project (HPP), with support from USAID. It is available at no cost for use by anyone. All uses of DemDiv should credit HPP and USAID as the source of the model, using the citation listed on the model overview page. HPP does not verify the results of applications performed independently, and results should be presented as estimates. HPP kindly requests that individuals, institutions, and programs using the model inform Futures Group of such use so that we better understand its reach and impact, by contacting policyinfo@futuresgroup.com. Users are also welcome to submit comments and suggestions to improve the model to the same address.

  • This PowerPoint presentation was used to present HPP's new DemDiv model for projecting the demographic dividend, and preliminary results for the pilot application in Kenya. It will be presented to members of the Technical Working Group in Kenya for validation, scenario development, and refinement. 

  • This brief describes the potential for a demographic dividend in Kenya, based on the pilot application of DemDiv, a new modeling tool developed by the USAID-funded Health Policy Project that projects the demographic and economic effects of interacting policy changes in the family planning, education, and economic sectors. The DemDiv model was piloted in Kenya by a multisectoral Technical Working Group chaired by the National Council for Population and Development. Four scenarios for the period between 2010 and 2050 were developed. The results show that combined family planning, education, and economic policies boost investment and employment, with GDP per capita growing more than 12 times above current levels and a potential demographic dividend of US$2,500 per person. The brief includes specific and multisectoral policy recommendations for Kenya to successfully achieve the demographic dividend.

  • The Plano Estratégico do Sector da Saúde (PESS) 2014-2019 (the Health Sector Strategic Plan), is the overall expression of the priorities, implementation approaches, and resource commitments for health of the government of the Republic of Mozambique (GRM). With support from the USAID-funded Health Policy Project (HPP), the Ministry of Health (MISAU) applied the OneHealth model to estimate the financial and health system resources need to implement the plan, and the likelihood of meeting key indicators in maternal and child health and HIV/AIDS related to the Millennium Development Goals. Detailed cost analysis was conducted for over 40 disease programs across primary and secondary health. Financial requirements for the overall human resources for health (HRH), logistics, health infrastructure, governance and leadership, and health information systems were also estimated. The report identifies potential constraints for the scale-up of services, such as inadequate human resources, and includes an HRH gap analysis. It also contains a review of the strategic planning process at MISAU, and recommendations for the institutionalization of the OneHealth approach.

    The report is available in English and Portuguese.

  • The government of Cote d'Ivoire is committed to the fight to gain control and turn the tide of the HIV epidemic. Striving to offer the best standard of HIV treatment, the country aims to adopt the new 90-90-90 target. The country also plans to roll out “test and offer” for the general population in the near future and begin piloting Option B+ for pregnant women in 2015. Such an intense scale-up of HIV treatment services will require intensified coordination to mobilize resources and effectively target those funds for treatment scale-up and sustainability.

    The aim of this cost-outcome analysis study was to estimate the cost of HIV treatment scale-up and the impact of such an expansion by estimating the cost of treatment for one person per year for adults, children, and pregnant women. Currently, limited data exist around the unit cost of HIV treatment in Cote d’Ivoire. To inform policy decisions on how best to finance scale-up of treatment with the limited resources available, understanding the outcome of HIV treatment—and the levers for improving the chances of successful treatment—is critical.

    The study found that the cost of the full year of treatment expected by following the national treatment guideline would be CFA142,431 (US$288) for adults, CFA217,603 (US$440) for children, CFA85,063 (US$172) for PMTCT Option B, and CFA 151,827 (US$207) for PMTCT Option B+. A total investment of approximately CFA147 billion (US$297 million) is required over the next five years, leading up to the year 2020, to achieve the 90-90-90 target and a 100 percent roll-out of the Option B+ approach for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). This investment will save more than 35,000 lives and prevent more than 6,000 children from becoming infected via PMTCT compared to the status quo, in which treatment coverage increases at the historical pace.

  • Compelling evidence of the effectiveness of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as an HIV prevention intervention emerged during three randomized control trials that concluded in 2007. In December 2011, the World Health Organization and UNAIDS established a global strategic target of scaling up VMMC to reach 80 percent male circumcision prevalence among priority countries by 2016. As programs have rolled out VMMC, questions have arisen about how programs can be focused on populations where they will achieve the greatest impact. The Health Policy Project, with funding from PEPFAR through USAID, constructed a new model, DMPPT 2.0, to examine the impact and cost of focusing circumcision services on different age groups and subnational regions. This poster, presented at the 20th International AIDS Conference in Melbourne, Australia, provides an overview of the model.

  • These evidence-based advocacy materials, based on Spectrum projections, were produced under the USAID-funded Health Policy Project by the White Ribbon Alliance Nigeria to support national- and state-level advocacy efforts aimed at increasing access to family planning.

  • The USAID-funded Health Policy Project applied its new ImpactNow model to estimate the near-term benefits of achieving family planning goals in Kenya. This brief describes some key benefits associated with achieving these goals, and offers recommendations for the government of Kenya and development partners to increase investment in and improve family planning services in the country.

  • The USAID-funded Health Policy Project supported partners at Gondar University to use the FamPlan model to analyze the demographic and family planning program implications of meeting Ethiopia’s Family Planning 2020 (FP2020) targets. The projections show that, if Ethiopia achieves a contraceptive prevalence rate of 73.3 percent by 2020 (the target set by the Federal Ministry of Health), the total fertility rate would fall to less than two children per woman in 2020 and the annual population growth rate would slow to less than 1 percent by 2020. In addition, under-five and infant mortality rates would drop significantly due to increased use of family planning. The model projection also estimated the number of contraceptive commodities required to achieve the target, which can be used to ensure contraceptive security.  

  • For a country to successfully achieve its family planning goals and targets, stakeholders must fully understand the investment needed to attain them. The Health Policy Project, in collaboration with Ghana's National Population Council, recently reviewed data on demographic patterns, family planning costs, and projected funding to inform an application of the GAP (Gather, Analyze, and Plan) Tool. The tool is designed to project the contraceptive, service provision, and program support funding gaps in a country to ultimately help policymakers, decisionmakers, and development partners understand the costs involved in reaching national family planning goals and addressing challenges to progress. This presentation and brief summarize the current policy environment in Ghana for family planning, the targets set by the National Population Policy, and the gap in current and estimated resources needed. These evidence-based advocacy materials aim to bolster financial and political support for the family planning program in Ghana.

    For more information on the GAP Tool, visit the Software and Models page of the Health Policy Project website.

  • In 2013, the USAID-funded Health Policy Project, in collaboration with the National Population Council (NPC) of Ghana, supported the development of a Ghana RAPID application. The NPC, comprising governmental and nongovernmental organizations, focuses on the state of family planning in Ghana and the need for more support and funding for the national family planning program. “RAPID” stands for “Resources for the Awareness of Population Impacts on Development,” and it is a tool designed to help policymakers understand the relationships between fertility, population growth, health, education, agriculture, and economic growth. The presentation uses RAPID projections to highlight the impact of Ghana's population growth on national development and its ability to provide education, health, and nutrition to all its citizens. The presentation also highlights the policies the government must put in place to benefit from the demographic dividend.

  • ImpactNOW, a new family planning advocacy model, generates evidence to make the case for immediate FP investments by modeling gains in maternal and child deaths averted, unintended pregnancies, and financial savings to the healthcare system as a result of FP uptake. ImpactNOW is currently being pilot-tested in Ethiopia's Amhara Region. On August 27, 2013, the Health Policy Project held a one-day stakeholders meeting to introduce ImpactNOW, provide a live demonstration of the model, and obtain feedback and impressions of it from family planning stakeholders, advocates, and policymakers. Stakeholders included representatives from the Amhara Regional Health Bureau (ARHB), the Regional Finance and Economic Development Bureau (BoFED), university partners, and nongovernmental organizations. Their primary focus in applying ImpactNOW will be the linkage between FP uptake and maternal and child deaths.

  • ImpactNow is an Excel-based model that estimates the health and economic impacts of family planning (FP) in the near term. It is designed to model the impacts of different policy scenarios, and to compare the results of those scenarios in advocacy materials. It can help to estimate the impacts of many “what if” questions about policy options. ImpactNow is designed to analyze impacts in the two- to seven-year time horizon; for example, it could be used to estimate the impacts of meeting Family Planning 2020 (FP2020) commitments. The outcomes are focused on reproductive health metrics, as well as economic metrics, such as cost-benefit ratios and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER).

    ImpactNow was adapted from Marie Stopes International’s (MSI) Impact 2 as a collaboration between MSI and the Health Policy Project (HPP), with support from USAID. The ImpactNow Manual: Estimating the Health and Economic Impacts of Family Planning Use is also available to help health analysts use the ImpactNow model to estimate the health and economic impacts of FP programs.

  • ImpactNow is an Excel-based model that estimates the health and economic impacts of family planning in the near term. It is designed to model the impacts of different policy scenarios and to compare the results of those scenarios in advocacy materials. It is designed to estimate the impacts of many "what if" questions about policy options in the two- to seven-year time horizon; for example, it could be used to estimate the impacts of meeting Family Planning 2020 (FP2020) commitments. The outcomes are focused on reproductive health metrics, as well as economic metrics, such as cost-benefit ratios and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

    ImpactNow was adapted from Marie Stopes International's Impact 2 in collaboration with the Health Policy Project, with support from USAID. The USAID-funded Health Policy Project authored the users’ manual to help health analysts apply the ImpactNow model to estimate the health and economic impacts of family planning programs at national and subnational levels.

    Under Health Policy Plus, ImpactNow was revised in September 2018. This 2.0 version of ImpactNow features the following additions:

    • Youth-only option: users now have the option to calibrate the model for a youth population only (either all youth ages 15–19 or only youth in union, ages 15–19)
    • New default database: the model now features an updated database, with the latest available values for each country or region across model input data categories
    • New display features: the model features an infographic option, embedded in the results section, allowing users to present model results in a visually compelling way for diverse audiences
    • Expanded methodological alignment: the ImpactNow 2.0 methodology has been revised in an effort to harmonize the computation of select outputs with other family planning modeling efforts

  • The USAID-funded Health Policy Project applied its new ImpactNow model to estimate the near-term health and economic benefits of achieving family planning goals in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. This report presents the proceedings of the preliminary results dissemination meeting, held in Bahir Dar in May 2014, attended by the Amhara Regional Health Bureau and representatives from the Federal Ministry of Health. Following presentation of the draft results, attendees' discussions and recommendations were recorded to inform the final ImpactNow analysis, to be completed in late 2014.

  • Two commonly used measures of population policy effectiveness and family planning programs are the total fertility rate (TFR) and the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR). Over the past 18 years in Malawi, CPR increased dramatically from 13 percent in 1992 to 46.1 percent in 2010 among reproductive-age women in union. Surprisingly, this dramatic increase in CPR resulted in only a modest decline in TFR from 6.7 to 5.7 births per woman in the same period. According to international correlations, the increase of 33 points in CPR would have lowered TFR by 2 births.

    This study, conducted by the USAID-funded Health Policy Project (HPP), uses available data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to explore why the rise in CPR has not translated into significant reductions in TFR in Malawi. It employs the Proximate Determinants of Fertility Model developed by Bongaarts to estimate TFR at the national level, and urban and rural levels in 2000, 2004 and 2010. The observed (as calculated from DHS data) and estimated (as calculated by HPP) TFR values are compared and explanations of any differences are explored.

  • Since 2012, the USAID-funded Health Policy Project (HPP), in partnership with the Ethiopia Public Health Association (EPHA), has trained 52 public health professionals from government entities, universities, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in the use of the Spectrum Policy Modeling System suite of tools. Driven by the vision of furthering this initiative, four faculty members from the Department of Reproductive Health at the College of Medicine and Health Sciences, the Department of Population Studies in the Faculty of Social Sciences, and the Institute of Public Health at the University of Gondar developed a proposal to integrate four Spectrum Model tools—DemProj, FamPlan, RAPID, and LIST—into the Master of Public Health (MPH) and Master of Science (MSc) curricula.This report summarizes the process followed, as well as successes and lessons learned from the integration of Spectrum tools into the academic curricula at the University of Gondar.

  • The HIV epidemic in Ukraine is severe and concentrated: it is estimated that there were 211,800–237,000 HIV-positive individuals in the country in 2013. Once dominated by infections among people who inject drugs (PWID), the adult HIV incidence in Ukraine is increasing among other key populations and the national prevention strategy must adapt. These populations include female sex workers (FSWs), clients and casual partners of FSWs, and men who have sex with men (MSM), among others. In this context, the USAID- and PEPFAR-funded Health Policy Project partnered with the State Service of Ukraine on HIV/AIDS and the Institute for Economy and Forecasting to analyze the cost and effectiveness of HIV prevention from 2014–2018. Conducted in July 2013, the analysis aimed to inform the National AIDS Programme (NAP) 2014–2018. This poster was presented at the 20th International AIDS Conference in Melbourne, Australia.

  • In March, the Kenya Ministry of Health convened an international consultation forum in collaboration with the World Bank Group and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) through the Health Policy Project to deliberate on the challenges of providing universal health coverage (UHC) to all Kenyans, regardless of their ability to pay, and to explore strategic and sustainable health financing options. The Kenya Health Policy Forum reviewed options and lessons learned from other countries, and proposed recommendations on how the country can improve efficiency to achieve UHC.

    The meeting brought together local and international experts with diverse expertise spanning the health sector, including both the public and private sectors. Participants from Kenya included representatives from both levels of government, nongovernmental organizations, faith-based organizations, and the private sector. International speakers shared experiences from Brazil, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, and Mexico. Development partners who support Kenya’s health sector were also represented, including the USAID, the UK Department for International Development, the German Federal Enterprise for International Cooperation, and the World Bank.

  • The Saving Mothers, Giving Life partnership (SMGL) is a global partnership between governments, donors, and the private sector to accelerate reduction in maternal and neonatal mortality in sub-Saharan African countries.As part of the SMGL program, the USAID-funded Health Policy Project (HPP) has worked with Zambia’s Ministry of Community Development, Mother and Child Health (MCDMCH) and its Ministry of Health (MOH) to develop their capacity to use the OneHealth Tool (OHT) to model reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health (RMNCH) program scale-up and resource needs.In order to make further progress toward reducing maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, MCDMCH requested that HPP conduct a training on the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) (a component of OHT) with programmatic staff from the ministry’s maternal health, child health, and nutrition units. LiST is a computer-based modeling tool that uses input data such as demographic and service coverage levels to estimate the number of deaths that can be averted as a result of expanding effective maternal and child health interventions.

  • Once dominated by infections among people who inject drugs, the adult HIV incidence in Ukraine is increasing among other key populations and the national prevention strategy must adapt. In this context, the USAID-supported Health Policy Project (HPP) partnered with State Service of Ukraine on HIV/AIDS and Other Socially Dangerous Diseases, and the Institute for Economy and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in July 2013 to analyze the cost and effectiveness of HIV prevention over 2014–2018. The analysis aimed to inform the National AIDS Programme (NAP) 2014–2018. HPP applied the Goals mathematical model to examine the effects of scaling up treatment, harm reduction, and other behavioral interventions on incidence, and developed an Excel-based model to estimate the implementation cost. Recent Ukraine-specific epidemiological, behavioral, demographic, and cost data were obtained from the Ministry of Health and other secondary sources. Results suggest that the NAP with universal access targets for prevention is the most cost-effective prevention strategy. This suggests additional investment in Ukraine would be rational and could save lives. Non-renewal of Global Fund support for key prevention interventions in Ukraine would substantially weaken the efficiency and effectiveness of its HIV response and requires an urgent resource mobilization strategy.  

  • This presentation aims to raise awareness about the impact of rapid population growth on Malawi’s development. It includes projections of population growth from 2008 to 2040 based on two hypothetical population scenarios. One scenario assumes that women in Malawi will continue to have 5.7 children on average during their lifetime, while the other scenario assumes a gradual decline in fertility to three children per woman. The first scenario with continued high fertility shows the population growing from about 13 million people in 2008 to 38 million people in 2040. By contrast, the second scenario with lower fertility shows an increase from about 13 million people to 30 million. By 2040, Malawi would have over 8 million fewer people if women were to have three children instead of nearly six.

    These projections demonstrate the impact that rapid population growth can have on various sectors, such as education, health, agriculture and food security, environment and land use, and the labour force and employment.

  • This briefing book aims to raise awareness about the impact of population growth on Malawi's development. It includes projections of population growth from 2008 to 2040 based on two hypothetical population scenarios. One scenario assumes that women in Malawi will continue to have 5.7 children on average during their lifetime, while the other scenario assumes a gradual decline in fertility to 3 children per women. The first scenario with continued high fertility shows the population growing from about 13 million in 2008 to 38 million in 2040. By contrast, the second scenario with lower fertility shows an increase from about 13 million in 2008 to 30 million in 2040. By 2040, Malawi would have more than 8 million fewer people if women were to have three children instead of nearly six. 

    These projections demonstrate the impact that rapid population growth can have on various sectors, such as education, health, agriculture and food security, environment and land use, and the labor force and employment. In the case of education and health, a slower population growth rate results in less pressure on the government budget to provide free primary education and public health services. 

  • This 2-page briefer aims to raise awareness about the impact of rapid population growth on Malawi's development. 

  • To meet growing enthusiasm among policymakers for the potential economic benefits of the demographic dividend with a deeper understanding that can promote tailored and effective policy investments, the USAID-funded Health Policy Project has developed a cross-national, customizable projection model, DemDiv. This technical guide describes the rationale and design of the two-part model, which consists of equations describing capital formation, employment growth, and total factor productivity as a function of age structure and other social and economic variables. Applied to any country, DemDiv allows users to design multiple scenarios that capture the effects of different policy interventions and quantify the demographic dividend.

  • In 2014, the Health Policy Project, in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), supported the development of a subnational family planning advocacy booklet in Adamawa, Nigeria. Using Resources for the Awareness of Population Impacts on Development (RAPID), this booklet highlights the impact of the state’s low contraceptive use and high population growth on its development prospects, principally its ability to provide education, health, nutrition and employment to all its citizens.

  • “Population, Development, and Family Planning: The Urgency to Act” highlights the health benefits and cost savings associated with meeting all unmet need for family planning in nine francophone West African countries by 2030. If governments invested in meeting family planning needs, an estimated 500,000 infant deaths and 7,400 maternal deaths could be averted over the next decade. Similarly, if the nine governments invested US$84 million in family planning services over the next decade, they would save $195 million needed for programs to reach the Millennium Development Goals by 2020. In other words, for every dollar invested in family planning programs, governments could save US$2.30 in reduced expenditures for maternal health, malaria, immunization, education and water and sanitation programs.

    Dr. Johanna Austin Lucinda Benjamin, Director of Primary Health Care and Disease Control of the West African Health Organization, presented these findings at the West Africa regional conference on Population, Development and Family Planning, held in Ougadougou, Burkina Faso, on February 8–11, 2011.

  • HIV, hepatitis A, hepatitis C, and syphilis are all transfusion-transmissible infections that can arise from the use of unscreened blood. In collaboration with Kenya's National Blood Transfusion Services (NBTS), the Health Policy Project examined the current status of blood screening in Kenya and two key steps that could help reduce the risk of transmissible infections. Relevant research questions revealed that Kenya, like other sub-Saharan African countries, needs to completely screen, in both facilities and donation centers, the blood of all family replacement donors as well as voluntary donors. It also needs to increase the total supply of screened blood to meet the needs of a growing population. This brief summarizes the analysis conducted, presents the cost-benefit results of completely screening the existing blood supply (in terms of infections averted), and outlines cost-efficient steps for increasing the total screened blood supply.

  • Like many sub-Saharan African countries, Kenya is exploring the adoption of the World Health Organization Option B+ strategy as the standard of care for its program to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV. The Health Policy Project (HPP) was invited by the National AIDS and STI Control Programme (NASCOP) to help conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of scaling up Option B+ versus other strategies. Results of the analysis suggest that implementing a scale-up of Option B+ will avert infant and adult infections but at a significant additional cost. Kenya should consider these results to assess whether Option B+ is affordable given the available resources.

  • With support from the USAID-funded Health Policy Project, the Ethiopian Public Health Association applied the DemProj module of the Spectrum suite of models to project the size of the Ethiopian population from 2012 to 2050. The projection showed that the population is expected to increase steadily from 83.7 million in 2012 to 171.8 million in 2050. The young (0 to 14 years) age group is projected to decline after 2030, while the working-age population (15 to 64 years) and older age population (65 years+) are expected to continue growing. Ethiopia’s window for capturing a possible demographic dividend is projected to peak around 2040. Based on the data from the model, recommendations were made to accelerate access to family planning services and to increase investments in health, education, and other development sectors to take advantage of the demographic dividend.

  • The OneHealth Model (OneHealth) is a tool for medium term (3 to 10 years) strategic planning in the health sector at the national level, ideally suited for public sector planners. It estimates the costs by disease program, as well as estimating the costs of utilizing the health system building blocks in delivering the targets involved in the disease programs. In Kenya, at the request of the Ministries of Health, HPP provided technical assistance in applying OneHealth to cost the Kenya Health Sector Strategic Plan III, 2012-2017, reflecting the interventions under the Kenya Essential PAckage of Health, as well as national disease strategies for programs that include HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, non-communicable diseases, maternal, reproductive and child health, etc. The results include an assessment of the overall financial gap between resources needed and the government and donor resources available for all years of the analysis. This brief is intended for a policy audience in Kenya to support sustainable health sector planning, and may be of interest to other countries in the region who wish to apply OneHealth or similar approaches to assessing costs and financial gaps.

  • This policy brief highlights the USAID-funded Health Policy Project's application of the RAPID model to forecast integrated data and evidence on population and socioeconomic projections for the Amhara region. The analysis can support experts and policymakers to engage in data-driven decision making, planning, budgeting, and monitoring and evaluation of regional population issues linked with related factors such as the economy, education, health, agriculture, and urbanization. The projections were made according to the Central Statistical Agency 2012 Intercensal Population Survey’s low and high variants for 2007 to 2037.

  • Tanzania's Ministry of Health and Social Welfare chose the OneHealth Tool, a model for medium- to long-term strategic planning in the health sector, to inform development and prioritization of the Fourth Health Sector Strategic Plan 2015/16–2019/20 (HSSP IV). Specifically, the OneHealth Tool was used to estimate the resource requirements and resources available for the health sector over the next five years, the impact on maternal and child health and HIV if HSSP IV service delivery targets are met, and the human resources constraints in scaling up health services. The results of Tanzania's OneHealth application are summarized in this report and provide an evidence base for strategic planning and resource allocation.

  • The Ethiopian Ministry of Health, in collaboration with the Health Policy Project (HPP), recently used the FamPlan model to measure the impact of increased family planning use on the number of infant and child deaths. The results showed that family planning uptake is associated with decreases in high-risk births and infant and child mortality and that faster gains in the contraceptive prevalence rate lead to more dramatic health improvements. This poster—presented at the 2013 International Conference on Family Planning in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia—describes the methodology and results of the model application.

  • The GAP Tool (Gather, Analyze, and Plan) is a simple Excel-based tool designed to help policymakers, ministry officials, health officials, and advocates understand and plan for the costs associated with expanding family planning (FP) to achieve their country's contraceptive prevalence or fertility goals. This PowerPoint presentation provides a brief overview of the benefits of and major steps for applying the GAP Tool and includes highlights from a pilot application of the tool in Ethiopia and Nigeria.  

  • The GAP Tool (Gather, Analyze, and Plan) is a simple Excel-based tool designed to help policymakers, ministry officials, health officials, and advocates understand and plan for the costs associated with expanding family planning (FP) to achieve their country's contraceptive prevalence or fertility goals. This brief provides a brief overview of the benefits of and major steps for applying the GAP Tool and includes highlights from a pilot application of the tool in Ethiopia and Nigeria.  

  • This manual provides the user with step-by-step instructions to apply the GAP Tool (Gather, Analyze, and Plan). The GAP Tool is a simple Excel-based tool to help policymakers, ministry officials, health officials, and advocates understand and plan for the costs associated with expanding family planning to achieve their country's contraceptive prevalence or fertility goals. The two main outputs produced by the tool are the country’s funding gaps for a national family planning program and for family planning commodities. 

    The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) supported development of the GAP Tool through the USAID | Health Policy Initiative, Task Order 1, and continues to support work on the tool, as well as this manual, through the Health Policy Project. 

  • At the request of the Ghana AIDS Commission and other in-country stakeholders, the Health Policy Project (HPP) updated an analysis of the effects of various funding scenarios on program impact and HIV incidence and coverage. The project used the Goals Model to develop these scenarios, which were based on new fiscal realities and provided stakeholders with information to revise a proposal to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Malaria and Tuberculosis. HPP’s Goals Model helps countries respond to the HIV epidemic by showing how the amount and allocation of funding is related to the achievement of national goals, such as the reduction in HIV prevalence and expansion of care and support. The information from this analysis will continue to guide ongoing decision making and planning in Ghana regarding the country's HIV treatment, care, and support programs.

  • The Health Policy Project (HPP) offers user-friendly software, computer models, and tools to help in-country partners understand the magnitude of health challenges, explore policy and resource options, and set priorities as they develop strategies to improve the health of their citizens.  The project has recently completed a series of fliers on some of HPP’s useful tools and approaches. They provide excellent overviews of the following:

    • Costed Implementation Plans
    • DemDiv
    • ImpactNow
    • RAPID
    • OneHealth Tool
    • GeoHealth Mapping
    • DMPPT

    For your convenience we have also included our flier on all Software and Models. You can download the tools from our Software and Models page.

  • The USAID-funded Health Policy Project (HPP) in Ethiopia builds the capacity of leaders to increase demand for and use of evidence for family planning and reproductive health (FP/RH) services in support of the strategic planning, monitoring, and evaluation of programs, nationally and in selected regions.To strengthen the capacity of national planning bodies, professional associations, training institutions, and research partners in this area, HPP collaborated with the Ethiopian Public Health Association (EPHA) to provide trainings and technical updates on key FP/RH models, including the GAP (Gather, Analyze, and Plan) Tool and a selection from the Spectrum System of Policy Models.

    To ensure that participants would apply the skills learned, HPP and EPHA designed and implemented a pilot mentorship program that paired selected trainees and master trainers as mentees and mentors, respectively.To document the lessons learned and obtain participant feedback on the training and mentorship program, an assessment, including in-depth interviews, was conducted.

  • As part of its overall effort to promote evidence-based policies, decision making, planning, and advocacy, the Health Policy Project has worked with the Ghana AIDS Commission (GAC) and other important  stakeholders to conduct a costing study of services to key populations in Ghana (males who have sex with males and female sex workers). This will ensure that Ghana has country-specific costing data available. The study team collected information from service providers at eight purposively selected facilities and from program managers at the regional and central levels. The costing data are now being used to update Ghana's Goals Model and for planning, budgeting, and decision-making purposes (e.g, in conjunction with the development of Global Fund proposals and development of operational plans and budgets). In addition, one of the purposes of analyzing unit costs is to understand what is driving costs and identify areas where there is potential to gain efficiencies and reduce costs without negative impacts on quality.

    The report does not include specific operational details on how each of these different levels may use study results for their individual planning, budgeting and resource mobilization, and/or allocation purposes. The accompanying Estimating the Unit Costs of Providing Key HIV Services to Female Sex Workers and Males Who Have Sex with Males in Ghana: A Data Use Guide summarizes key findings from the study and provides specific details on how study results may be best used to inform the evidence base for the Ghana HIV program.

  • As part of its overall effort to promote evidence-based policies, decision making, and planning and advocacy, the Health Policy Project has worked with the Ghana AIDS Commission (GAC) and other important stakeholders to conduct a costing study of services to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV. This will ensure that Ghana has country-specific costing data available. The study selected 14 sites within the country, including teaching, regional, and district hospitals providing PMTCT services. To understand differences in services being delivered at the community level, the study included three community-based health planning service sites and three maternity home sites. The study team interviewed two programmatic and finance staff at the 14 sites and central-level program managers and financial officers during data collection. The costing data are now being used to update Ghana's Goals Model and for planning, budgeting, and decision-making purposes (e.g., in conjunction with the development of Global Fund proposals).

    The report does not include specific operational details on how each of these different levels may use study results for their individual planning, budgeting and resource mobilization, and/or allocation purposes. The accompanying Estimating the Unit Costs of Providing HIV Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission Services in Ghana: A Data Use Guide summarizes key findings from the study and provides specific details on how study results may be best used to inform the evidence base for the Ghana PMTCT program.