In many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, high fertility rates are starting to decline, presenting growing potential to benefit from an opportunity known as the demographic dividend. The dividend refers to faster economic growth that is caused in part by changes in population age structure. It can contribute to both national development and improved well-being for families and communities, but in order for it to be successfully achieved, countries must implement integrated programming to promote population change and invest in human capital and economic development.
To meet growing enthusiasm among policymakers for the potential economic benefits of the demographic dividend, the Health Policy Project developed DemDiv, a customizable projection model. DemDiv is a user-friendly, evidence-based tool that can inform policymakers in high-fertility countries of the potential benefits of the demographic dividend and increase their support for investments in the multisectoral policies required to achieve those benefits. The model, which can be applied in any country, allows users to design multiple scenarios showing how the combined power of policy investments in family planning, education, and the economy can generate a demographic dividend not possible under the status quo.
DemDiv was created by the Health Policy Project (HPP), with support from USAID. It is available at no cost for use by anyone. All current uses of DemDiv should credit HPP and USAID as the source of the model, using the citation below. HPP does not verify the results of applications performed independently, and results should be presented as estimates. HP+ will be updating the model as part of our core work in Family Planning. The project kindly requests that individuals, institutions, and programs using the model inform us of such use so that we better understand its reach and impact, by contacting email@example.com. Users are also welcome to submit comments and suggestions to improve the model to the same address.
Suggested citation: Health Policy Project and United States Agency for International Development (USAID). 2015. DemDiv Model. Washington, DC: Futures Group, Health Policy Project.
This page includes links to download the DemDiv model, to its technical guide and users' manual, and to policy briefs and news stories from the countries where DemDiv has been applied to date. Note that links may be to the HPP site.
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